The African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council has rejected a report by The Economist suggesting that President Bola Tinubu could retain office in the 2027 presidential election despite public discontent.
Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, said electoral forecasts could not determine how Nigerians would vote.
In a response titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku”, Shaibu said factors including incumbency, political machinery, religion and voter turnout could influence an election but should not be interpreted as evidence of public consent.
He was responding to The Economist report published on October 1, which examined Tinubu’s prospects ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Economist identifies factors shaping 2027 election
The Economist highlighted incumbency and access to ruling-party structures as factors that have benefited incumbents in previous Nigerian elections.
The publication also pointed to opposition fragmentation, noting that Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate, and Peter Obi, the NDC presidential candidate, are contesting under separate political platforms.
Religion and voter cynicism were also identified as factors that could influence voting patterns.
‘A forecast is not a verdict’
Shaibu said the factors identified by The Economist could not determine the outcome of the election in advance.
“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he said.
He also rejected the interpretation that hardship, insecurity and limited access to public services necessarily translate into political passivity.
According to Shaibu, Nigerians affected by insecurity and economic hardship retain their political agency and will make their own decisions when they have the opportunity to vote.
He said receiving medical assistance or other forms of government support should not automatically be interpreted as blanket approval of the administration’s overall record.
Cost of living remains key issue
Shaibu said economic conditions would remain an important issue for voters, pointing to food prices, transport fares, school fees, electricity bills and the cost of running businesses.
He cited inflation of 15.39 per cent in August and food inflation of 19.57 per cent year-on-year.
Shaibu argued that a slowdown in the rate at which prices increase does not necessarily mean that food and other necessities have become cheaper.
“Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families,” he said.
Shaibu disputes low-turnout argument
Shaibu also disputed the suggestion that low voter turnout could work in Tinubu’s favour.
He said the relatively low participation recorded in the 2023 presidential election could have reflected apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical barriers or the belief that voting would not change anything.
According to him, low turnout should not be interpreted as evidence that most Nigerians support an incumbent.
“Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” he added.
The ADC campaign council’s position is that the eventual outcome of the 2027 election will be determined by voters rather than forecasts or assessments made before the poll.
