Global warming could reach 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, even if countries fulfil their latest climate pledges, the United Nations has warned.
The warning came in the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) annual Emissions Gap Report, released on Wednesday, which said global greenhouse gas emissions remained at record levels in 2025.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said current government policies and national climate plans were insufficient to keep global warming within the limits agreed under the 2015 Paris climate accord.
“Emissions remain at record levels. And national climate plans and current policies fall dangerously short, pointing to 2.6C to 2.8C of warming,” Guterres said.
The report highlights the gap between countries’ climate commitments and the action required to limit rising temperatures, ahead of the COP31 climate summit scheduled to hold in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20.
Paris Climate Goals Under Threat
The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
However, UNEP said the world could exceed the 1.5°C threshold even if governments implement their latest climate pledges in full.
Under existing policies, global temperatures could rise by as much as 2.8°C by the end of the century, the report warned.
“The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree limit, and the consequences are already devastating,” Guterres said.
He cited deadly floods, heatwaves, wildfires, loss of lives, economic disruption and deepening inequalities among the consequences of climate change.
The report also warned that every additional fraction of a degree increases the risks of extreme weather and potentially irreversible environmental changes, including coral reef decline and permafrost melting.
Global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.4°C compared with pre-industrial levels, according to the report.
Global Emissions Remain at Record Levels
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remained broadly comparable with the record levels recorded in 2024, with the difference too small to establish a meaningful change, UNEP said.
Emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate change, increased slightly during the year.
The Group of 20 major economies accounts for approximately three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions, placing significant responsibility on its members to accelerate emissions reductions.
Guterres urged all countries, particularly major emitters, to strengthen their climate action.
The report’s worsening outlook compared with the previous year reflects the United States’ formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and upward revisions to historical emissions, co-author Anne Olhoff said.
Although emissions growth slowed among G20 economies, the United States was a major exception.
Preliminary 2025 data showed emissions increases in the United States, Indonesia and China, while India, Russia and the European Union recorded decreases.
The United States recorded an increase of 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, substantially higher than that of any other country.
The report attributed the increase to higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation.
Turkey recorded the next-largest increase, adding pressure on the country ahead of its hosting of COP31.
The United States remains the world’s second-largest polluter after China. President Donald Trump has dismissed climate change as a hoax and rolled back clean-energy policies while supporting increased fossil fuel production.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said no country was immune to climate change, with its effects being felt across the world, including in the United States.
UN Outlines Path to Limit Global Warming
The report examined a scenario offering a 50 per cent chance of bringing global warming back down to 1.5°C by 2100.
Under this scenario, temperatures would peak at approximately 1.8°C by 2050 before declining. Achieving that outcome would also require removing substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
However, the pathway depends on immediate emissions reductions of approximately six per cent annually until 2035, a pace far beyond current projections.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, said governments needed to introduce policies that would rapidly reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Climate-vulnerable developing countries have accused major emitters of abandoning the Paris climate goals, with disagreements over the 1.5°C target expected to feature prominently at COP31.
Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa, criticised governments for delaying action despite decades of scientific warnings.
“This is a historic failure of political leadership. The science has been clear for decades, but governments have chosen delay over action. The consequences will be measured in lives lost, not just degrees of warming,” Adow said.
Guterres acknowledged a gap in climate leadership but stressed that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold should not be treated as a reason to abandon efforts to limit global warming.
The UNEP report calls for immediate and deeper emissions cuts to reduce the severity of future climate impacts and bring countries closer to the goals of the Paris Agreement.
