Nigeria’s fragile power sector has plunged millions deeper into darkness after electricity generation from the national grid collapsed to about 3,000 megawatts (MW), far below both installed capacity and government promises of improvement.
On Tuesday, grid supply fell sharply despite Nigeria boasting over 13,000MW of installed generation capacity. The decline comes at a time when Band A and B customers are paying higher tariffs in exchange for assurances of better and more reliable electricity, with the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, previously pledging an average supply of 5,000MW.
By early evening, generation had slipped further to just 2,652MW, with only 13 power plants active nationwide. The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) attributed the sudden drop to the explosion on the Escravos–Lagos gas pipeline, which disrupted gas supply to several power stations. NISO said repairs were nearing completion and promised improvement within 24 to 48 hours.
Yet the latest grid data paints a grim picture. Abuja, Ikeja and Eko electricity distribution companies (DisCos) received the highest allocations, while Yola recorded the lowest. Many Nigerians, despite festive expectations, are bracing for Christmas in darkness.
Beyond the immediate outage lies a deeper crisis. Regulatory data show that more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s installed generation capacity was unavailable in the second quarter of 2025. Of the 13,625MW connected to the grid, average available generation stood at just 5,396MW, translating to a troubling plant availability factor of 39.6 per cent.
The economic cost is staggering. Analysts estimate that over 8,200MW of idle capacity is costing the electricity market about ₦415 billion every month — nearly ₦5 trillion annually — fuelling the sector’s chronic liquidity crisis and mounting debts owed to generation companies and gas suppliers.
Gas-fired plants, which make up over 70 per cent of Nigeria’s power capacity, remain at the heart of the problem. While gas shortages are often blamed, industry experts insist the real issue is unpaid bills, weak contract enforcement and broken market discipline. Several gas-dependent plants recorded zero output for extended periods, while others operated far below capacity.
Hydropower, once a fallback during gas disruptions, has also failed to stabilise the grid. Changing rainfall patterns, ageing infrastructure and poor reservoir management have made output increasingly unreliable, leaving the system exposed when thermal plants underperform.
Energy analysts warn that Nigeria does not lack power plants, but a functional electricity market. Weak governance, insufficient tariffs, poor remittance by DisCos and ineffective enforcement of contracts continue to choke the sector.
Until liquidity is restored, contracts honoured and governance strengthened across the value chain, experts say Nigeria’s grid will keep running far below potential — and households and businesses will continue to pay the price in darkness, diesel costs and lost productivity.
