Manchester City have one fewer Premier League point than they did after 12 games last season, but data analyst Opta ranks them as the overwhelming favourites to win a fourth consecutive title.
Opta Analyst’s number crunchers estimated where each of the 20 teams will end the season based on 10,000 simulations of the 2023–24 season fed into a supercomputer based on form and remaining matches.
And, although the future is bright for Pep Guardiola’s City, it is also bleak for Burnley. According to Opta Analyst, City have an 84.6% chance of retaining the title, while Liverpool have a 9.1% chance, and last season’s runners-up Arsenal have a 5.6% chance.
Tottenham Hotspur’s title ambitions are essentially non-existent, according to Opta, with a 0.3% chance, the same as Aston Villa’s.
Manchester United, now in sixth place, is forecast to finish seventh, with only a 5.9% probability of finishing in the top four; however, this has recently increased somewhat.
Newcastle United have a 25% probability of finishing in the top four for the second time in a row, while Chelsea are expected to finish ninth.
According to Opta’s projections, the bottom three, currently the three clubs promoted last season, will all be relegated, with 20th-placed Burnley given an 86.9% chance of relegation.
