Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional deaths from extreme heat over the next six months as the El Niño weather phenomenon intensifies, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The report projects that the wider Sahel region of Africa could suffer 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, with nearly half expected in Nigeria.
The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) raise concerns about the potential severity of the current El Niño event and its effects on vulnerable communities.
The agencies warn that the phenomenon could intensify extreme heat, droughts and flooding, placing additional pressure on countries already grappling with humanitarian and economic challenges.
El Niño could intensify extreme weather
Speaking at a joint press conference on Wednesday, WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, with its effects potentially continuing beyond that period.
Saulo said the organisation’s latest global seasonal climate outlook projects that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
She warned that a powerful El Niño could disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns, triggering severe drought in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding in others, while increasing temperatures across large parts of the world.
Saulo urged governments and humanitarian organisations to act on available forecasts and early-warning systems to protect vulnerable populations.
She added that communities already affected by conflict, displacement and limited access to water, sanitation and healthcare could face further humanitarian pressures.
El Niño could worsen food insecurity
Tom Fletcher, the UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, warned that the crisis could deepen existing food insecurity and economic pressures.
Fletcher said about 50 million people could face increased hunger.
He also cited African Development Bank estimates that the crisis could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce their gross domestic product by between one and two per cent.
According to Fletcher, the UN has released more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 countries on the front lines of the crisis, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.
He urged governments, development banks and international financial institutions to provide funding before the impacts escalate rather than wait until affected communities suffer major losses.
Fletcher said the next two weeks would be critical for preparedness, including providing cash assistance to vulnerable households, helping farmers and herders protect crops and livestock, and moving essential supplies before flooding cuts off roads.
Global South faces disproportionate heat risks
The Climate Impact Lab report estimates that El Niño could cause 451,000 additional deaths from extreme heat during the first nine months of the weather phenomenon, from June to February.
It warns that countries in the Global South could bear a disproportionate share of the mortality burden.
Beyond Africa, the report projects 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 in Indonesia.
India could record 15,800 additional deaths, while Brazil could see 13,300.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and economics professor at the University of Chicago, said the projections could help governments identify where emergency interventions would save the most lives.
The report recommends early-warning systems, cooling centres and stronger protections for outdoor workers to reduce heat-related deaths.
It also warns that the extreme temperatures associated with this year’s El Niño could offer a glimpse of conditions the world may experience in about 20 years as climate change intensifies.
Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and research lead at the Climate Impact Lab, said immediate emergency measures could save lives, but governments also needed to invest in long-term adaptation to prevent extreme heat from becoming a recurring humanitarian emergency.
Saulo said El Niño could not be prevented, but timely action and coordinated preparedness could reduce its worst consequences.
Nigeria faces rising temperatures
Nigeria could face heightened risks from extreme heat as an unusually strong El Niño develops, adding to existing climate-related pressures on vulnerable communities.
In recent days, temperatures have reached 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
The rising temperatures have raised concerns about the potential health and livelihood impacts of prolonged heat, particularly for outdoor workers and communities with limited access to cooling facilities, reliable electricity and healthcare.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat in some regions while contributing to droughts or above-normal rainfall in others.
Although El Niño is a natural form of climate variability, human-induced climate change is raising global temperatures and increasing the risks associated with extreme heat.
The combination can intensify the effects of an El Niño event, exposing more people to dangerous temperatures and compounding existing vulnerabilities.
For Nigeria, prolonged extreme heat could increase the risk of heat-related illnesses. The country also faces significant electricity-access challenges, with about 87.3 million people reportedly lacking access to electricity.
Extreme heat can place additional pressure on water supplies and electricity demand, threaten agricultural productivity and disrupt outdoor livelihoods.
People who cannot afford cooling systems, as well as those who work outdoors for long hours, could face greater risks as temperatures rise.
