Nigerian journalist and public affairs analyst Oluwafemi Popoola says Atiku Abubakar’s fresh push on subsidy and economic relief is creating a new political headache for Tinubu ahead of 2027, while Peter Obi could be losing ground.
Popoola, a Nigerian journalist and columnist who previously served on the media strategy team of former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, made the observation in a recent viral article published by TheCable titled, “Atiku’s Subsidy Gambit: Tinubu Has a New 2027 Problem.”
He argued that Atiku’s renewed focus on fuel prices, foreign exchange, transportation and the rising cost of living could give the former vice-president a stronger political narrative ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
According to him, Atiku’s proposal to introduce a production-based subsidy for locally refined petroleum products could become a major campaign issue. Atiku had explained that his proposal was different from the former import-dependent arrangement, insisting that “the subsidy will follow the barrel.”
Popoola said the strategy could force the Tinubu administration to explain more clearly what Nigerians had gained from subsidy removal.
The columnist also highlighted Atiku’s proposal to reopen Nigeria’s land borders and develop southern ports to reduce the cost of transporting goods to northern Nigeria.
However, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communications, Sunday Dare, responded that Nigeria’s land borders were already open, citing the reopening of the Kamba border.
Popoola described the exchange as evidence that Atiku was broadening his challenge beyond subsidy to trade, transportation and economic policy.
Popoola noted that the Federal Government had defended its reforms by pointing to increased revenues, stronger foreign reserves, greater stability in the foreign exchange market and improved investor confidence.
He, however, argued that “macroeconomic recovery and household prosperity are not identical twins,” stressing that economic indicators would matter politically only if Nigerians could feel their impact in their daily lives.
He further argued that Atiku appeared to be positioning himself as a major beneficiary of northern dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration following the death of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
However, Popoola cautioned against assuming that Buhari’s former support base would automatically transfer to Atiku.
According to him, the opposition landscape could also complicate the 2027 contest, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso remaining significant political actors despite divisions within the broader opposition camp.
Popoola said the emerging political contest could increasingly revolve around whether Nigerians believe the hardship caused by Tinubu’s reforms is justified by their promised long-term benefits.
He also pointed to President Tinubu’s recent announcement that state governors had agreed to work with the Federal Government to reduce transportation costs through Compressed Natural Gas and electric vehicles from October 1, 2026.
The journalist concluded that the 2027 election could ultimately become a referendum on the economic experience of Nigerians, arguing that “Tinubu will have to answer it with results, not speeches,” while Atiku would also have to demonstrate that his proposed alternative could deliver sustainable relief without simply returning the country to the old subsidy system.
