Nigeria’s cities are on course for an unprecedented population surge, with an additional 140.3 million people expected to settle in urban areas over the next 25 years, more than double the country’s current city population. By 2050, Nigeria’s urban population is projected to reach about 264 million, placing enormous pressure on infrastructure but also positioning cities at the heart of future economic growth.
Despite the scale of the challenge, the World Bank projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 and sustain that momentum in 2027, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report. This outlook follows an estimated 4.2 per cent expansion in 2025 and ranks Africa’s largest economy among the fastest-growing in Sub-Saharan Africa, even as global growth slows to 2.6 per cent.
In a separate World Bank study titled Multi-sector Analytical Review and Pathway to Transformation, Nigeria is forecast to become the world’s third most populous country after China and India. The report shows that urbanisation has accelerated dramatically, with city populations rising from fewer than seven million in 1960 to more than 128 million in 2024. Alarmingly, nearly half of urban residents currently live in slums.
By mid-century, around 70 per cent of Nigerians are expected to live in cities. While this rapid urban shift offers vast economic opportunities, the World Bank warned that unmanaged growth could undermine productivity and living standards.
Drawing on diagnostics across 11 major cities, detailed studies of Lagos, Kano, Ibadan, Abuja and Maiduguri, and extensive stakeholder consultations, the report sets out a roadmap to make Nigerian cities more liveable, inclusive and resilient. It identifies five core challenges holding cities back, including unplanned expansion, severe service gaps, unchecked urban sprawl and mounting infrastructure deficits that have failed to keep pace with population growth.
On the macroeconomic front, the World Bank attributes Nigeria’s improving outlook to sustained reforms, a resilient services sector and the country’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products. Finance and ICT are leading the recovery, supported by modest gains in agricultural productivity.
The lender noted that recent reforms — including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tighter monetary policy — have helped stabilise the economy after years of imbalance. Although inflation remains high, it is expected to ease gradually as monetary tightening filters through, aided by global disinflation and lower energy prices.
However, risks remain. The World Bank cautioned that Nigeria is still vulnerable to swings in the global commodity cycle. Crude oil prices are projected to fall from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026, before a mild rebound in 2027. For a country where oil revenues remain critical, prolonged price weakness could strain public finances and external balances.
