ECOWAS and world powers think that there is still time for dialogue with Niger’s coup leaders before a Thursday conference that might agree on military action to restore democracy.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has arranged the conference to discuss its stalemate with the Niger junta, which seized control on July 26 and rejected a deadline to step down on August 6.
After ECOWAS slapped sanctions and Western partners froze funding, the coup leaders have promised to defy external efforts to return deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.
The seventh power grab in West and Central Africa in three years has piqued worldwide interest, thanks in part to Niger’s key position in a struggle with Islamist terrorists and its uranium and oil riches, which give it economic and strategic relevance for the United States, Europe, China, and Russia.
“There’s no doubt that diplomacy is the best way to resolve this situation,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told French radio station RFI on Tuesday.
According to him, the US is supporting the ECOWAS attempts to restore constitutional order. He refused to speculate on the fate of the 1,100 US troops stationed in Niger.
Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland travelled to Niamey on Monday, indicating the United States’ interest in the country. She conducted “frank and difficult” conversations with senior junta leaders, but they did not accept US ideas for restoring democratic rule.
Military Action Plan
The 15-nation ECOWAS group has taken a tougher stance on the Niger coup than it has on previous recent government overthrows. Its credibility is jeopardized since it has stated that coups will no longer be allowed.
ECOWAS defence chiefs agreed on Friday on a possible military response plan if Bazoum is not returned and restored, while they indicated that operational decisions will be made by heads of state.
Any use of force by ECOWAS would risk further destabilizing one of the world’s poorest areas, making such an intervention improbable, according to risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
“ECOWAS recognizes that a military intervention would be very costly, with no guarantee of long-term success and a significant risk of escalation into a regional war,” its Africa analyst, Ben Hunter, wrote in a note.
“It is fundamentally not in the interests of regional states.”
The group also sent a team to Niger last week to try to talk with the junta, but a source in the entourage claimed their efforts were denied.
