Nigeria has emerged as the single largest driver of West Africa’s booming diesel imports from India, accounting for 63 per cent of the country’s daily diesel needs despite repeated policy pledges to boost local refining.
Diesel shipments from India into West Africa have surged to record levels, underlining the region’s deepening dependence on overseas refined fuel. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that Nigeria’s local refineries supply only about 6.1 million litres of diesel per day, far below estimated daily demand of roughly 17 million litres.
According to the regulator, the Dangote Refinery contributes the bulk of domestic output at about 5.78 million litres per day. Waltersmith Refinery supplies roughly 0.05 million litres, Edo Refinery 0.05 million litres, while Aradel adds about 0.29 million litres daily. This leaves nearly two-thirds of national consumption to be met through imports.
Regional data highlight how this gap is increasingly being filled by India. Figures from S&P Global Commodity at Sea indicate that Indian diesel shipments to West African countries have climbed sharply since 2022, reaching almost 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026. The rise reflects persistent structural supply deficits across the region’s largest economies.
Between 2022 and early 2023, diesel inflows from India were volatile, swinging from below 100,000 tonnes to above 400,000 tonnes. These fluctuations mirrored post-pandemic demand uncertainty, foreign exchange shortages and erratic purchasing by fuel marketers, particularly in Nigeria and Ghana, where subsidy reforms and currency pressures distorted consumption.
From mid-2023 through 2024, however, import volumes settled at structurally higher levels. Regular monthly spikes above 400,000 tonnes signalled growing reliance on Indian refiners, whose scale, flexible pricing and access to discounted crude allowed them to displace traditional European suppliers.
India’s rise as Africa’s dominant diesel supplier has also been shaped by global trade shifts. As Europe cut back on Russian-linked products, Indian gasoil sought alternative markets. A Kpler report notes that this redirection has increasingly favoured Africa.
The most dramatic acceleration came between late 2025 and early 2026, when shipments jumped to an unprecedented 800,000 tonnes. The surge reflected not only rising consumption but mounting stress across West Africa’s energy systems. Chronic electricity shortages have entrenched diesel-powered generation, while population growth, logistics expansion and industrial activity continue to drive demand.
At the same time, outages, delays and underperformance at regional refineries have limited local supply responses. The contradiction is most evident in Nigeria. Despite new refining capacity and official claims of improving output, diesel—unlike petrol—remains fully deregulated and heavily import-dependent.
NMDPRA data show that in January 2025, total diesel supply averaged 15.1 million litres per day, with imports accounting for 8.6 million litres. Supply rose to 17.1 million litres in February and peaked at 21.1 million litres in March, when imports surged to 16.7 million litres, dwarfing domestic production of just 4.4 million litres.
Supply later fell to 14.1 million litres per day in May, the lowest level of the year, as both imports and local output weakened. Although domestic refineries helped stabilise supply between July and August, imports remained the decisive swing factor. Another import-led rebound in October lifted supply to 21.3 million litres before easing to 17.9 million litres in December.
Global trade disruptions continue to reinforce India’s dominance. Kpler notes that European Union sanctions on oil products derived from Russian crude have sidelined some Indian gasoil from European markets. Even as refiners such as Reliance Industries adjust crude slates to meet compliance rules, cautious European buyers are diverting volumes towards Africa.
The result has been a growing accumulation of diesel cargoes off the West African coast, intensifying competition and squeezing margins across the Atlantic Basin—while cementing Nigeria’s position as the region’s largest and most import-dependent diesel market.
