Poverty in Nigeria is projected to increase by three percentage points over the next five years, reaching 2027, World Bank said in a report.
The projection was made in the Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report, released on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The report paints a stark picture of Nigeria’s economic outlook, warning that despite signs of economic resilience—particularly in the non-oil sector—the country’s dependence on natural resources and its fragile governance structure are likely to exacerbate poverty. It calls for urgent governance reforms and inclusive economic policies to reverse this trend.
Although Nigeria recorded stronger-than-expected economic growth in the final quarter of 2024, especially outside the oil sector, its classification as a resource-rich but fragile state signals a troubling outlook for poverty alleviation.
The report highlights that poverty rates in resource-rich, fragile nations—including Nigeria—are projected to rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027. Notably, this group is the only one within Sub-Saharan Africa where poverty is expected to increase.
“Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of extreme poverty globally, with a significant share of the poor concentrated in a handful of countries,” the report notes. “Approximately 80 percent of the world’s estimated 695 million people living in extreme poverty in 2024 resided in Sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 8 percent in South Asia, 2 percent in East Asia and the Pacific, 5 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 3 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.”
Within Sub-Saharan Africa, half of the 560 million people living in extreme poverty in 2024 were concentrated in just four countries. Non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue reducing poverty at a faster rate than their resource-rich counterparts.
“Benefiting from higher agricultural commodity prices, non-resource-rich countries are projected to record stronger growth overall, despite fiscal pressures. Conversely, resource-rich nations are expected to experience weaker growth due to declining oil prices,” the report says. “As a result, these countries are forecasted to make less headway in poverty reduction.”
Resource-rich, fragile countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to see poverty increase by 3.6 percentage points over the five-year period. This trend follows an established pattern, where resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is linked to the highest poverty rates. In 2024, such countries had an average poverty rate of 46 percent—13 points higher than resource-rich but non-fragile nations.
Meanwhile, non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries have seen the most significant gains in poverty reduction since 2000, and by 2010, had closed the poverty gap with other non-resource-rich nations.
The report concludes by urging countries like Nigeria to improve fiscal governance and build a stronger social contract with their citizens to tackle poverty effectively.
