By Owei Lakemfa
The year 2023 held a lot of hope for Nigerians as the Buhari administration which had put the country on autopilot, was programmed to end its tenure by mid-year. Indeed, the past year had begun as a traumatic one with a currency change which impoverished the people as they could not readily access their bank accounts or money.
The naira, rather than being a means of exchange became a commodity traded in the streets. The local currency was so scarce that people paid as high as 15-20 per cent as commission for naira notes. Unfortunately, in the first seven months of the Tinubu administration, governance has not changed fundamentally. If anything, the Nigerian economy for the people got worse with the ill-advised and ruinous increases in PMS prices and the waterboarding of the of the naira. These are the major factors that pushed inflation to 28.2 per cent. Also in 2023, the Tinubu government was unable to end the scarcity of the naira leading to it being traded in the streets, sometimes at rates as high as 10 per cent.
The general elections were also rancorous and so contentious that nine months later, it continues to dominate discussions. A peep into 2024 does not show fundamental changes unless the vision and the constellation of ideas shift from the constructs of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, IMF to a pro-people one that puts Nigeria first and takes advantage of various initiatives such as currency swap and the mutually beneficial offers of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, BRICS countries.
INSECURITY
Insecurity is the most fundamental challenge to Nigerians as it speaks directly to the right to life, movement and other all rights. Unfortunately, there are no structures in place to guarantee security whether of the farmer or worker, manufacturer or trader. Unless the economy improves and measures such as establishing Community and State police, and empowering the people for self-defence are put in place, insecurity may worsen in 2024 in comparison with the previous year.
In 2023, there were monthly raids by marauders against the people of Plateau State culminating in the Christmas attacks which took over 200 lives. Unless the Tinubu administration correctly sees the attackers as criminals rather than alleged herders looking for grazing routes, the situation in 2024 will not improve, it might get worse in Nigeria.
Also, tension in the country can be reduced in the new year if the administration dialogues with people and groups like the Ohaneze, Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, Afenifere, Arewa Consultative Forum, the Ijaw National Congress, INC the Middle Belt Forum and major groups that represent various ethnic nationalities in the country. As a first step, it should set IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu free and initiate discussions with him. We should learn from contemporary history that the more the country clamps down on self-actualisation groups, the more strident their replacements are. For instance, the government clamped down on the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB led by Ralph Uwazuruike, only for the Benjamin Onwuka-led Biafra Zionist Federation, BZF to rise. The BZF tried to seize the Enugu Broadcasting Service and march on the Enugu Government House. IPOB led by Nnamdi Kanu was much more militant than the older groups, and when Kanu was abducted in Nairobi and detained in Nigeria, a far more fiery leader, Simon Ekpa arose.
Also, religious tension can be reduced in 2024, if the leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, Ibrahim Zakzaky is released after eight years in detention. Since 2015, the courts have granted himself and his wife bail which the Buhari government refused to obey. There is no reason whatsoever for the Tinubu government to inherit the enemies of the Buhari administration.
ECONOMY
The country is witnessing de-industrialization with more manufacturers like the GlaxoSmithKline, GSK, most of Unilever, and Procter and Gamble leaving the country in 2023.
In the same year, the Small Scale Industrialists reported that Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises were shutting down daily. The estimate is that in the seven months of the Tinubu administration, about four million such businesses have shut down due to the increases in the price of PMS and unfavourable business climate. These translate to massive job losses.
In 2024, unless the administration changes direction from its neo-liberal policies, introduces more creative economic initiatives and brings in people with alternative thoughts, the economy may become worse.
A positive turnaround of the Nigerian economy is impossible with so-called market forces but is possible through state-driven initiatives which have been lacking since 1986.
No serious country submits its economy, currency and people to the vagaries of market forces over which, in the first place, it has no control. All industrialized countries developed with the public sector as engine room.
INFLATION
The rate of inflation which soared in 2023 to 28.2 per-cent is likely to be brought down. If West African countries like Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and Benin can have inflation rates at less than 4 per cent, there is no reason why that of Nigeria can also not be single digit.
FUEL PRICES
The astronomical increases in the price of petrol (PMS) from May 29, 2023, has been the most damaging to the people and the economy. Transporting food stuff has become so prohibitive that the cost of production is far lower than the cost of transportation.
Fuel prices may rise again in 2024 given the pressures of the World Bank and its dictation to the Tinubu administration. The five main factors that can stop this are if local refining is restored in the public refineries; the Dangote Refinery begins production and the company is willing to sell its products to Nigerians at reasonable prices; the prices of crude oil drop significantly or the Tinubu government rejects the dictation of the Western-controlled international finance organisations and their mother countries. The fifth factor that can stop the fuel price increases is if we the people reject it and stand up in a united struggle against the further impoverishment of the Nigerian people.
DEMOCRACY
The sluggish democratic system will continue to rumble in 2024. However, the Federal and State Governments must realise that democracy is not a theology or belief. Rather, it is a collective investment by the people who expect dividends and good governance.
But if the people conclude that it is not a productive venture, they will neither protect nor defend it if it comes under attack. Therefore, governments at all levels should in 2024, strive to serve the people. Otherwise, they will endanger themselves, the system, democrats and the people.
Happy New Year 2024.
Owei Lakemfa is a veteran journalist and writer
