Diesel imports from India into West Africa have surged to record levels, underlining the region’s deepening dependence on foreign refined fuel despite years of policy pledges to boost local refining capacity.
Latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that Nigeria still imports about 63 per cent of its diesel needs, even with new refineries coming on stream. Dangote, Waltersmith, Edo and Aradel refineries together supply just 6.1 million litres per day, far below estimated daily demand of around 17 million litres.
Shipping data from S&P Global Commodity at Sea reveal that Indian diesel exports to West Africa have climbed sharply since 2022, reaching an unprecedented peak of nearly 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026. The sustained rise reflects persistent structural supply gaps across the region’s largest economies.
Between 2022 and early 2023, Indian diesel flows into West Africa were volatile, swinging from below 100,000 tonnes to over 400,000 tonnes. These fluctuations mirrored post-pandemic demand uncertainty, foreign exchange shortages and erratic buying by fuel marketers, particularly in Nigeria and Ghana, where subsidy reforms and currency pressures distorted consumption.
From mid-2023 through 2024, however, import volumes became structurally higher. Regular monthly shipments above 400,000 tonnes signalled a growing reliance on Indian refiners, whose scale, pricing flexibility and access to discounted crude enabled them to displace traditional European suppliers.
India’s rise as Africa’s dominant diesel supplier has also been shaped by shifting global trade flows. As Europe reduced its intake of Russian-linked oil products, Indian gasoil was pushed to seek alternative markets, according to data from Kpler.
The most dramatic acceleration came from late 2025 into early 2026, when shipments surged to a record 800,000 tonnes. The spike reflected not only rising consumption but mounting stress across West Africa’s energy systems. Chronic power shortages have entrenched diesel-powered generation, while population growth, expanding logistics networks and industrial activity continue to drive demand.
At the same time, outages, underperformance and delays at regional refineries have constrained local supply. This contradiction is stark in Nigeria, the region’s largest diesel market. Despite the start-up of new refining capacity and official claims of improving domestic supply, diesel remains fully deregulated and heavily import-dependent.
NMDPRA data show average domestic diesel production at about 6.1 million litres per day. Dangote Refinery accounts for the bulk with 5.783 million litres daily, followed by Aradel at about 0.289 million litres, while Waltersmith and Edo refineries each contribute just over 0.05 million litres.
Against reported diesel consumption of 16.4 million litres per day in December, domestic output covers only 37 per cent of national demand, leaving imports to fill the gap.
Monthly supply figures for 2025 highlight this reliance. In January, total diesel supply averaged 15.1 million litres per day, with imports accounting for 8.6 million litres. Supply rose to 17.1 million litres in February and peaked at 21.1 million litres in March, when imports surged to 16.7 million litres per day, far exceeding domestic production of 4.4 million litres.
Supply later fell to a low of 14.1 million litres per day in May as both imports and local output weakened. Although domestic refineries helped stabilise supply between July and August, imports remained the key swing factor. Another import-driven rebound in October pushed total supply to 21.3 million litres before easing to 17.9 million litres in December.
The dominance of Indian diesel is being reinforced by ongoing global trade dislocations. Kpler notes that European Union sanctions banning oil products derived from Russian crude have sidelined some Indian gasoil from European markets. While Indian refiners have adjusted crude slates to meet compliance rules, European buyers remain cautious, diverting more volumes toward Africa.
As a result, diesel cargoes are increasingly piling up off the West African coast, intensifying competition and squeezing margins across the Atlantic Basin.
