The United Nations World Food Programme’s warning that up to 35 million Nigerians could face severe hunger during the 2026 lean season is not a distant threat. It is already taking shape across the country, driven by insecurity, climate shocks and economic distress that have pushed Nigeria’s food system to breaking point.
In recent weeks, the lived reality of farmers and rural communities has confirmed what humanitarian agencies have long feared. Farmlands are increasingly unsafe. Farmers are killed, abducted, forced off their land or compelled to pay “protection levies” to armed groups simply to plant crops. In many rural areas, agriculture has become an act of courage rather than a livelihood.
This reality exposes the contradiction at the heart of Nigeria’s food security rhetoric. While successive governments announce new policies and programmes, the people who produce the nation’s food are under siege. A country where farmers must negotiate access to their fields with terrorists cannot credibly claim to prioritise food security. Until insecurity is decisively tackled, promises to reduce food imports or stabilise prices will remain hollow.
The scale of the crisis is stark. According to WFP Country Director David Stevenson, Northern Nigeria is facing its worst hunger levels in a decade. The latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis projects that nearly six million people in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe will experience crisis-level hunger or worse between June and August 2026. Even more alarming is the risk that at least 15,000 people in Borno could fall into Phase 5 catastrophic, famine-like conditions if current trends continue.
Behind these figures are families, children and entire communities trapped by violence and deprivation. Children are suffering most. Malnutrition rates in Borno, Yobe, Sokoto and Zamfara are at critical levels, worsened by funding shortfalls that have forced the WFP to scale down nutrition programmes. As clinics close and access becomes more dangerous for aid workers, thousands of children are losing their last lifeline.
Insecurity is not acting alone. Climate change is intensifying hunger across Nigeria. Erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells and destructive floods have disrupted farming cycles. Rivers and lakes that once sustained agriculture and herding are shrinking or drying up too early, pushing pastoralists further south and inflaming herder-farmer conflicts.
The Lake Chad Basin, once a major source of livelihoods, continues to recede, leaving behind poverty, displacement and social tension. Wetlands that supported rice farming have become dry or saline. With water scarce, communities are forced to migrate, abandon their land or compete violently over dwindling resources. Climate change has become a direct driver of hunger and conflict.
Violent herder incursions have compounded the crisis in the Middle Belt and southern states, where farms are destroyed and communities attacked. The absence of a clear national livestock policy and weak enforcement of land-use laws have allowed these clashes to spread, threatening food production well beyond the North.
Together, insecurity, climate change, farmer-herder conflict and economic hardship have created a perfect storm. The consequences extend beyond hunger. Food scarcity fuels instability, providing fertile ground for insurgent recruitment and deepening Nigeria’s security crisis.
Avoiding catastrophe demands urgent, decisive action. Securing food-producing regions must become a national security priority, with specialised agro-ranger units and community-backed security forces protecting farmlands and supply routes. Terrorist taxation of farmers must be dismantled by cutting off the networks and finances that sustain it.
Nigeria must also climate-proof its agriculture through investment in irrigation, watershed restoration and drought-resistant crops, while rehabilitating degraded river basins. Farmer-herder conflicts require policy solutions, including modern livestock management, ranching and enforceable land-use reforms.
At the same time, humanitarian funding must be strengthened. With WFP resources under strain, Nigeria must mobilise international support, protect aid workers and rebuild a transparent, professionally managed national food reserve system. Local governments also need greater autonomy and resources to respond early to food and security threats.
The UN’s warning is more than a projection. It is a verdict on Nigeria’s failure to protect its farmers and rural communities. A nation that cannot secure those who grow its food cannot feed its people.
Time is running out. Without bold leadership and coordinated action, millions more Nigerians could be pushed into hunger. With it, the country can still avert disaster and restore hope.
